The return of NHL players to the Olympics for the first time in 12 years has not disappointed. Over the last five days, we’ve seen highlight reel goals, incredible saves and seismic upsets across 18 entertaining matchups.

But now is when the good stuff truly begins. All 12 teams are still alive, but only four have punched their ticket to the quarterfinals. Canada, the United States and Slovakia all won their groups and will be the one, two and three seeds, respectively. Finland was the best of the three group runners-up and also has a quarterfinal bye by earning the number four seed.

The other eight teams are going to have to get there the hard way: by winning a head-to-head game on Tuesday that will send the loser home. Here’s a bit to expect on the first batch of elimination games we’ll seed in the Milan Cortina men’s hockey tournament, plus some bonus observations on the four teams that won't suit up again until Wednesday.

Winner plays No. 4 Finland in quarterfinal

Even though Sweden has the most points and best goal differential of any team not to receive a bye, it cannot be seeded higher than seventh because it finished third in its group, losing out on a three-way tiebreaker that was decided by one goal. So, Switzerland jumps into the most advantageous spot after winning in overtime against Czechia on Sunday to finish second in its group.

The Swiss team did suffer the most serious injury of the tournament when forward Kevin Fiala went down with what his NHL team the Los Angeles Kings announced is fractures in his lower left leg. Fiala is not just done for the Olympics but through at least the rest of the regular season.

However, Switzerland did receive strong performances from most of its other top players. The New Jersey Devils’ Timo Meier, Tampa Bay Lightning’s J.J. Moser and Nashville Predators’ Roman Josi combined for 11 points. Meier and the St. Louis Blues’ Pius Suter both scored multiple goals.

If there’s an X-factor for the Swiss, it’s New Jersey Devils captain Nico Hischier, who has just one assist so far. Goaltender Leonardo Genoni, who has spent his entire pro career in Switzerland, has been sensational with a .948 save percentage, winning both of his starts.

While Italy did a commendable job of staying close with Sweden and Slovakia, their flaws were deeply exposed in a lopsided 11-0 loss to Finland. For the host country to have a puncher’s chance, Anaheim Ducks prospect Damian Clara must stand on his head the way he did against the Swedes. Former American Hockey League forward Matt Bradley has half of Italy’s goals and will have to scratch and claw for offense against a Swiss blue-line with four NHLers.

Winner plays No. 3 Slovakia in quarterfinal

In a small, one-game sample size, Germany is a very scary team because they can match almost every team in the field in high-end talent. Tim Stutzle has lived up to the billing with four goals, tied with Canada’s Macklin Celebrini for the most in the Olympics. Leon Draisaitl and J.J. Peterka have three points apiece, although it feels like Draisaitl has another level that Germany will need to find if they hope to win a medal. Defenseman Moritz Seider also needs to produce more than one assist from the backend to boost those chances.

France allowed 20 goals in the round robin, the most of any team, with half of those coming in a loss to Canada. They haven’t received the goaltending that other underdog teams like them desperately need to have a chance to score an upset. And their lone NHLer, Montreal Canadiens forward Alexandre Texier, is pointless with a team-worst minus-eight rating. Unless both of those things change, it’s difficult to see France reaching Wednesday.

Winner plays No. 2 United States in quarterfinal

How you feel about Sweden is about whether you place more stock in round robin results or overall team strength. By the latter, Sweden is a formidable foe – they were one of if not the biggest favorites to win a medal behind Canada and the United States. But they’ve underwhelmed on the ice. Only Elias Pettersson has more than one goal and they have a tough decision between Jacob Markstrom and Filip Gustavsson in net.

It feels like only a matter of time before Sweden wakes up, though. They dominated play against Italy only for Clara to stand on his head for most of the game. Nine different players have multiple points. And they were a last-minute goal against Slovakia away from winning their group – a Slovakia team they still beat by two goals, by the way.

Latvia has shown better than expected to this point. Zemgus Girgensons, the definition of a defense-first forward in the NHL, is embracing a bigger role with four assists in three games. But their minus five goal differential is still third worst in the field. It’s disappointing that NHL netminders Elvis Merzlikins and Arturs Silovs, the latter of whom went on a magical run in the playoffs two years ago when he was thrust into action as the Vancouver Canucks third stringer, have ugly numbers.

How this game goes feels like a litmus test for Sweden. They should win, but whether they do so convincingly or in close fashion will determine how dangerous they feel going forward.

Winner plays No. 1 Canada in quarterfinal

Like Sweden, Czechia feels like it’s got a bit more to give in these Games. They’ve got plenty of star power and were an overtime goal against Switzerland away from being the five-seed and a near shoe-in for the quarterfinals. Instead, their road is a bit harder.

Arguably their three best skaters – Martin Necas, David Pastrnak and Filip Hronek have predictably led the way. They’ve gotten some contributions from their depth, but it’s the middle of the lineup – NHL players who aren't stars like Ondrej Palat and Radko Gudas – who need to produce more. The same goes for Tomas Hertl, a high-end NHLer who didn’t have a point in the round robin. Young Anaheim Ducks netminder Lukas Dostal has proven capable of stealing games in the NHL. He’ll need to show he can do the same in the Olympics for Czechia to go far.

Denmark did a nice job defensively in the group stage, allowing fewer goals (11) than every team playing on Tuesday except for Switzerland and Sweden. Nikolaj Ehlers was good, but Oliver Bjorkstrand and Lars Eller have just one assist each. Frederik Andersen is a very experienced netminder in the NHL, and if he can maintain his group stage form, Denmark won’t be a pushover.

Canada’s biggest weakness going into the tournament was supposed to be goaltending, particularly if it rode Jordan Binnington in the midst of a dismal NHL season. Canada allowed just three goals in as many games against overmatched group stage opponents, but there were some blemishes. Bad rebounds by Binnington and Logan Thompson led to two of the goals and another on Binnington came from a fairly long range.

However, against their most dangerous foe (Czechia), Binnington posted a 26-save shutout with several excellent saves. If that’s the guy Canada gets the rest of the tournament, the one with a reputation for rising to meet high leverage moments, it will be very difficult to beat them. And with how good Connor McDavid and company has looked, it may not even matter.

One area for the United States to work on is their play in the first period. The U.S. was tied with Latvia 1-1 after 20 minutes, down 2-1 against Denmark (after a fluky goal from the red line went against them) and needed a goal in the final 10 seconds to take a lead into first intermission over Germany.

In fairness, the U.S. generally controlled play in those periods, especially against Germany when they finished with a 15-8 edge in shots on goal. So far, the decision to leave high-end goal scorers Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield at home hasn’t been a factor. It's been a great start to the tournament for Auston Matthews and Connor Hellebuyck as both look to shake the notion that they can't deliver in big games. But with a talented Swedish team potentially facing them in the quarterfinals, the U.S. will have to be ready from the jump.

Slovakia is the biggest surprise to be here. After winning nine of 15 games in the 2006 and 2010 Olympics, they won only one of eight games in the next two Olympics. But then 17-year-old Juraj Slafkovsky led them to their first medal in Beijing (bronze) and has them in contention for another four years later. This time, he’s a more balanced threat, though. In 2022, Slafkovsky had seven goals but no assists. In Milan, he has three of each.

Finland has a balanced scoring attack, but perhaps the biggest reason for optimism is the play of Juuse Saros. He got off to a bit of a rough start, allowing three goals on 24 shots against Slovakia, but finished with a .946 save percentage, fifth best in the tournament. After four straight seasons finishing in the top six in Vezina Trophy voting for the NHL’s top goaltender, he’s been perfectly pedestrian over the last season and a half. With a difficult path ahead of them – barring upsets, they would face Switzerland and then Canada in their next two games – the Finns will need to be in top form to return to the podium.