The Olympic figure skating pairs short program kicks off on Sunday, and if you've been watching the sport at all this week, you'll know that nothing can be taken for granted. 

If possible, this event has the potential to be even more unpredictable. 

At the past two Olympics, the pairs figure skating gold medal has come down to less than a point, and at the Milan Cortina Games there are four teams with a shot at the podium — and potentially gold — all with season's best scores within a four-point range:

• Japan's Riku Miura / Ryuichi Kihara
• Georgia's Anastasiia Metelkina  / Luka Berulava
• Italy's Sara Conti / Niccolo Macii
• Germany's Minerva Hase / Nikita Volodin

Historically, pairs remains the U.S.' weakest figure skating discipline — America has never won Olympic gold and hasn’t medaled in pairs since 1988.

Ellie Kam and Danny O'Shea are positioned as the top U.S. team and should be right in the mix for a finish inside the top 10. The 2024 U.S. champions were fundamental to Team USA's Olympic figure skating team event win last week, posting an all-time personal best score.

They had a slow start to their pre-Olympic season last fall, after being plagued by injury, but recovered in time to earn bronze at both of their Grand Prix assignments. Their presence at these Games is a sign of true resilience and marks a historic metric: O’Shea became the oldest U.S. Olympic pairs skater since 1932 when he turned 35 on Friday. For an American discipline building depth, Kam and O’Shea bring rising momentum, strong performance skills, and a chance to again post strong results on the sport’s biggest stage.

They’ll be joined earlier in the event by Emily Chan and Spencer Howe, who are also skating in their first Olympic Games after a dramatic rally at the U.S. Championships — climbing from 8th in the short to 4th overall — earned them a spot on the team.

The early favorites for Olympic gold are Japan’s Riku Miura and Ryuichi Kihara. The two-time world champions own the top season best at 225.21 and swept both Grand Prix assignments plus the Grand Prix Final this year. They’re chasing Japan’s first Olympic pairs medal of any color, and arrive as the most consistent team in the field.

Right alongside them are Georgia’s Anastasiia Metelkina and Luka Berulava, fresh off a gold at the 2026 European Championships and carrying a nearly identical season best of 225.20. The pair have shown occasional volatility — including costly mistakes at Skate America — making their short program especially critical.

Italy’s Sara Conti and Niccolo Macii sit close behind with a season best of 223.28. The 2023 and 2025 world bronze medalists finished just 1.93 points back of Miura and Kihara at the Grand Prix Final. Skating together since 2019, they helped Team Italy to an Olympic bronze in the figure skating team event, and they are legitimate contenders for the individual gold medal. If they achieve a podium place, it would be Italy's first ever pairs Olympic medal and if they win, it would be the first ever figure skating gold medal for their nation.

Germany’s three-time national champions Minerva Hase and Nikita Volodin round out the primary contenders. The 2025 world silver medalists have been inconsistent this season, but won the free skate at the Grand Prix Final finishing 3rd overall — proof that when things go well, they can contend for gold.

Finally, Deanna Stellato-Dudek and Maxime Deschamps have given uneven performances of late, and likely have only an outside shot at the podium, but as 2024 world champions, they have shown they are more than capable of topping the results table. At 42, Stellato-Dudek will be the oldest Olympic female skater in nearly a century. After returning to the sport after a stunning 16-year retirement, Stellato-Dudek made the Olympic Games her goal. Those dreams were almost dashed when she was injured during training in the weeks before the Milan Cortina Games.

The pairs event is likely to be one of the more unpredictable figure skating events (although we've seen so far that things have been far from predicable), with the short program only giving a first indication of who may stand on top of the podium at the end of it all. 

Watch the pairs short program on Sunday Feb. 15th at 1:30 p.m. ET streaming live on Peacock and NBCOlympics.com, and airing on USA Network and NBC.

Pairs figure skating at the Olympics allows for a maximum of 19 teams. Teams of one male and one female figure skaters compete a short program (2 minutes 40 seconds plus or minus 10) and a free skate (4 minutes (plus or minus 10 seconds).

As in all figure skating disciplines, pairs skaters are judged on a set of required elements and “program components” — skating skills and performance.

In the short program pairs teams must perform these required elements:

• Triple or double twist
• Triple or double throw
• Side-by-side triple or double jump
• Side-by-side spin
• Backward inside death spiral
• Step sequence

After the pairs short program, the top 16 teams in the short program will advance to the free skate.

Warm-Up Group 1

3. Karina Akopova / Nikita Rakhmanin (ARM)
4. Sui Wenjing / Han Cong (CHN)
5. Anastasiia Golubeva / Hektor Giotopoulos Moore (AUS)

Warm-Up Group 2

7. Camille Kovalev / Pavel Kovalev (FRA)
8. Emily Chan / Spencer Howe (USA)
9. Daria Danilova / Michel Tsiba (NED)
10. Yuna Nagaoka / Sumitada Moriguchi (JPN)

Warm-Up Group 3

11. Ioulia Chtchetinina / Michal Wozniak (POL)
12. Lia Pereira / Trennt Michaud (CAN)
13. Annika Hocke / Robert Kunkel (GER)
14. Anastasia Vaipan-Law / Luke Digby (GBR)

Warm-Up Group 4

15. Maria Pavlova / Alexei Sviatchenko (HUN)
16. Rebecca Ghilardi / Filippo Ambrosini (ITA)
17. Ellie Kam / Danny O'Shea (USA)
18. Deanna Stellato-Dudek / Maxime Deschamps (CAN)

Warm-Up Group 5

19. Anastasiia Metelkina / Luka Berulava (GEO)
20. Sara Conti / Niccolo Macii (ITA)
21. Riku Miura / Ryuichi Kihara (JPN)
22. Minerva Fabienne Hase / Nikita Volodin (GER)