Now, we truly get to the good stuff. There were some great games in group play and on Tuesday in the elimination round. But everything goes to a different level on Wednesday. Each of the four teams that received byes are back in action, with stars such as Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Juraj Slafkovsky and Mikko Rantanen set to play their first win-or-go-home Olympic game.
The four teams that win today will advance to Friday’s semifinals and guarantee the chance to play for a medal – either on Saturday for bronze or on Sunday for gold. But there will be four talented teams and numerous elite players who won’t be able to reach that stage. Here’s a look at what to expect in the quarterfinals.
No. 6 Germany vs. No. 3 Slovakia
How far can Slafkovsky take Slovakia? Four years ago, when he was just a teenager, the answer was the bronze medal spot, but that was in an Olympics without NHL players. Slovakia has been a solid team for most of the tournament – not necessarily elite in one area, but with no key weakness teams have exploited. Minnesota Wild prospect Samuel Hlavaj has answered their biggest question – goaltending – but will have his hands full with Leon Draisaitl and Tim Stutzle.
Germany’s big three up front – Draisaitl, Stutzle and J.J. Peterka – have produced very nicely with 16 combined points. Draisaitl’s three-point performance Tuesday against France was an especially important performance. Expect Germany to give Slafkovsky a healthy dose of Moritz Seider, the rising star defender for the Detroit Red Wings in contention for the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s top defenseman. Slovakia will likely counter with two-time Stanley Cup champion Erik Cernak's and the Washington Capitals' Martin Fehervary as their most trusted defensemen. Both teams opt for a spread the wealth approach in this matchup. Cernak and Fehervary have been on separate pairs (the latter has played with talented New Jersey Devils youngster Simon Nemec, although he's not as reliably defensively) for the Swiss; Draisaitl led his own line on Tuesday while Peterka and Stutzle played together.
The only noteworthy separation in the teams’ statistical profiles is discipline. Only Sweden and Switzerland (both of which have played an extra game) have spent more time killing penalties than Slovakia (21:09) and they have nearly twice as many penalty minutes than Germany. After a disappointing power play showing in the group stage, the Germans cashed in twice on the man advantage against France. That could be a key matchup in deciding this outcome, especially since Slovakia has struggled to control play. The Slovaks have only taken 45.67 percent of the shot attempts in their games, easily the worst mark of any remaining team and making them one of only two squads below 50%. The good news is they're playing the other, as Germany is at just 47.33 percent.
Slovakia has gotten five goals from non-NHLers compared to Germany's three, so you could argue there's more depth production to be found there, especially with Martin Gernat (Cernak's partner) tied for the second-most points in the Olympics by a defenseman with four. Still, this feels like a game that will be decided by high end talent. Germany has more of it, but Slafkovsky in particular is coming in hot.
No. 8 Czechia vs. No. 1 Canada
This is the lone rematch from the group stage, which takes some of the luster away from a very intriguing matchup on paper. It could’ve been a much different game if Macklin Celebrini didn’t score in the final five seconds of what was a very even first period, allowing Canada to eventually open the floodgates en route to a 5-0 win.
This will have to be a David Pastrnak legacy game for Czechia to stay in it. The Boston Bruins winger is one of five players to win the Rocket Richard for most goals in an NHL season since 2013 (of course, two of the others are Canada’s McDavid and Sidney Crosby). Pastrnak has been good so far in the Olympics, but he needs to deliver a true superstar performance while also getting continued support from Martin Necas. Tomas Hertl is probably the best player in these Games without a point, and if that doesn’t change against Canada, he almost certainly won’t get another chance.
Czechia does have a very experienced blue-line, but other than Filip Hronek, there are lots of questions about their ability to move the puck. They'll have to avoid making mistakes on their defensive zone exits against a relentless Canada team, and it will likely be up to their aforementioned star forwards to move through the neutral zone and create offense.
It will be interesting to see what the teams who played Tuesday do with their goaltending situation. It’s very rare in the NHL for a goalie to play on consecutive days in the regular season (there are almost never back-to-backs in the playoffs), but this is the Olympics. Lukas Dostal has been good, and given Dan Vladar’s underwhelming numbers against France and that Karel Vejmelka hasn’t played yet, it seems likely the 25-year-old Dostal will be back between the pipes.
Opposing him will likely be Jordan Binnington, Canada’s polarizing number one netminder. There’s a good chance Canada’s offensive output renders him almost irrelevant in this game. But his performance will go a long way to either quelling or growing the questions about Canada’s situation in the crease. That feels like the only possible thing that can derail this machine of a team from continuing to roll.
Another factor to watch is how Canada handles its lines. Head coach Jon Cooper has experimented with both a stacked scoring line of Macklin Celebrini, McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon, as well as spreading the wealth with McDavid, MacKinnon and Sidney Crosby each centering their own lines. It’s also possible Josh Morrissey returns from an injury suffered against Czechia.
If Canada has its way, the biggest point of drama will be whether McDavid continues his point-per-period pace. If he does, he’ll finish the game with 12 points, passing Hockey Hall of Famer Teemu Selanne for the most ever in one Olympics – in half of the games.
No. 5 Switzerland vs. No. 4 Finland
Finland has the fourth-most NHL players in the field (24 of 25), and with one of the teams ahead of them (Sweden) struggling in group play and facing a much harder path, the Finns are now firmly among the top three medal contenders. They recovered nicely from a stumble in their first game against Slovakia. Six Finnish players have scored at least 60 points in an NHL season. With Kevin Fiala out due to injury, only two Swiss players can say the same.
However, the Swiss have done a great job keeping the puck out of their net – their eight-goals against are tied for fourth fewest, and the other teams in the top five have all played one fewer game. In theory, Finland has a goaltending edge with Nashville Predators stalwart Juuse Saros. But 38-year-old Leonardo Genoni is one of the breakout non-NHL stars of the tournament with an Olympics-best .962 save percentage. Switzerland is also 12 for 13 on the penalty kill (92.31 percent), a better rate than every team except the United States. It will be interesting to see how he handles presumably playing on back-to-back days.
After an underwhelming performance in the group stage, Switzerland got the breakout performance it was looking for from Nico Hischier on Tuesday. The only Swiss player to be drafted first overall in the NHL, Hischier put up a goal and two assists, contributing to every goal in a 3-0 win over Italy. The challenge will be much greater against a Finnish backend with NHL stalwarts like Miro Heiskanen, Niko Mikkola and Rasmus Ristolainen. Switzerland has a stout blue-line itself, led by another Predators star in Roman Josi. As a returner from the 2014 Sochi Olympics, the motivation will be especially high for the 35-year-old to get the job done.
Now would be a great time for Finland's quartet of Dallas Stars to get going. Mikko Rantanen has been scoring (one goal, three assists), but he can take over a big game, like when he had a third-period hat trick in a game seven last year to eliminate his old team, the Colorado Avalanche, from the playoffs. Roope Hintz has just one assist, continuing a somewhat underwhelming season for him overall. Heiskanen and Esa Lindell have been solid on the backend, but the former in particular must drive offense as well. With two points in three games, he's off to a good start.
Heiskanen established himself as a premier player with an excellent performance as a sophomore NHLer in Dallas' run to the 2020 Stanley Cup Final. His 26 points led the Stars and were third most in the entire playoffs, which is almost unheard of from a defenseman. He's had a bounceback offensive season after his scoring numbers dipped the last two seasons. He's Finland's best bet to match what Josi provides on the Swiss blue-line and will be key in silencing Hischier and Timo Meier, who is having an excellent tournament after some regression in recent NHL play following a 40-goal season in 2022-23.
No. 7 Sweden vs. No. 2 United States
What could’ve been a semifinal or even a medal match is instead a quarterfinal. The U.S. and Sweden are two of three teams in the tournament with only NHL players, and now, one of them will be eliminated before even having a chance to win a medal. The Swedes have to feel especially frustrated with how things have played out. They averaged nearly 50 shots on goal but a non-score-changing, last-minute goal against Slovakia knocked them from the number three to seven seed. But nothing has been lost that they can't make up for on the ice.
This Swedish team has lots of skill up front and on the backend, plus stalwarts such as Gustav Forsling and Victor Hedman on their backend. They’ve limited shots at a nice clip and only allowed one goal on the penalty kill. By the numbers, there's no luster worn off their shine. It's easy to write off struggling to score against Italy as a one-off against a locked-in goaltender. They wound up outshooting the Finns by a wide margin, but that's what usually happens when you give up an early goal or two (something that's also been a bit of a problem for the U.S.) and are chasing the game.
It helps that Filip Forsberg is no longer being used as an afterthought, as his goal against Latvia on Tuesday showed. Nine different players secured a point in that win. Only Elias Pettersson and William Nylander have multiple goals (two each), so you could argue that no one is truly at peak powers (although Nylander did score a nasty power play goal on Tuesday). Lucas Raymond has looked legit, though, scoring a goal of the Games candidate against Slovakia and is tied with McDavid for the tournament lead with seven assists. His Detroit Red Wings teammate Dylan Larkin of Team USA knows just how filthy he can be.
Sweden decided to go with Jacob Markstrom in net Tuesday after he and Filip Gustavsson split the net in the round robin. Neither was outstanding in those games, so it will be interesting to see if the Swedes ride the veteran Markstrom or go with the rested Gustavsson.
This will definitely be Team USA’s biggest test either way. Sweden’s ability to roll all four lines and three defense pairings should mitigate some of the fatigue disadvantage, but that could still be a factor. There are no red flags with the U.S. performance so far. They have the highest percentage on shots on goal in their games of any team in the tournament. Both special teams units are clicking. Connor Hellebuyck has been excellent. But in a one-game sample size, anything can happen.
This is the biggest game for Team USA since last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off final. In that game, Matthew Tkachuk played less than seven minutes due to injury and Chris Kreider was under that threshold as well. Quinn Hughes was also absent from the entire tournament due to injury. There are a lot of players who will have their legacies significantly affected by the result of this game.
So far, Team USA’s focus on two-way talents such as J.T. Miller and Vincent Trocheck over high scoring threats such as Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield has paid off. With Kyle Connor likely to be the scratched forward (as he was in that 4 Nations final), it appears the U.S. will double down on that approach. That increases the onus on Matthews and Jack Eichel (nine combined points) to continue their dominant play.
One final player who could be a key factor: Tage Thompson. The two-time 40-goal scorer was one of the bigger names left off the 4 Nations team but has two goals so far in the Olympics. If Sweden matches its top lines against the United States’, Thompson could be in a position to get more favorable matchups on the third line.
This is a matchup between two of the top three teams in shots on goal percentage, two of the teams tied for second in total goals and two of the top three penalty kills. This should be an epic game that could live on in the history of the winner for a long time.